The Republican Party: a parliamentary party

[Editor's note: this is part two in a series of posts re-imagining the United States as a parliamentary government. To see the introduction piece to get a better idea of what this is and why I'm writing it click here. Part one described the new Democratic Party. Everything included in this post is fictional, including quotes, motives, policies, and strategies. However, I've done my best to imagine what could be based on the players involved and the circumstances provided.]

Where do we stand:

Following parliamentary realignment, the Republican party lost members in multiple direction. But, they were able to maintain some of their loyal following and remain by far the second largest party in both chambers, challenging Democratic by only a handful of seats. However, the challenges faced by the GOP from it's former members may prove to be more difficult in the long run than the Democrat's situation.

The GOP is not the party of any one person, we are the true voice for red blooded, hardworking, responsible Americans.

-Kevin McCarthy

Seats in the House: 116

Seats in the Senate: 31

Policy

The Republican Party was precariously positioned before the parliamentary era and they roll into a new age by taking a firm position on their most pressing issue: Trump. The Republican Party is a Trumpist party, his support and praise bring good tidings (and positive election results) even if his actual leadership or policy agenda is mostly placed on the back burner. This party recognizes Trumpism isn't, and was never, about actual policy but rather a form of political behavior. They are banking on keeping the voters trump brought into the party without loosing it's traditional corporate base.

Centered on Trumpism if not Trump himself:

Denial of the Election of Joe Biden is a requirement to be a member of the Republican Party. Dissention on this fact alone is enough to be stricken from party ranks.
Trump may not weigh in on most policy positions but his perceived support is important.

Cultural Conservatism

Partially Trumpist, partially pre-Trump. The Republican Party fights cultural fights.
Much of the party is defined not so much by what they are for but by what they fight against.
Anti-woke
Anti-socialist
Anti-communist
Anti-gun control
Anti-immigrant
Anti-Trans
Fighting about cultural issues is more important than legislating or offering real policy solutions to problems.
This is a party that is betting that keeping their base angry is better than offering their base real policies.
Still tethered to ideas of Evangelical morality: Pro-life, religious freedom (although mostly just for Christians), fights against adoption by gays and lesbians, and anti-Trans.

Economics

The core of the Republican party still remains following Trump and following the parliamentary realignment: lower taxes.
The party believes in lower taxes for corporations and businesses as well as lower taxes for higher income earners.
Small businesses feature as a useful talking point but rarely receive actual policy attention.
While the party is all for lower corporate taxes it also is at a bit of a crossroads. With many large corporations taking stands against effort to restrict ballot access and in support of Black Lives Matter, the party feels more warry today of corporate influences and may signal a shift towards smaller business, at least in rhetoric.
Deeply critical of Big Tech and the perceived Liberal bias of the major social media platforms. Desirous of some regulation of Big Tech but not clear on what forms of regulation would actually promote Republican voices online.

Environment

Pro fracking, fossil fuels, pipelines, and particularly coal.
The focus on coal elucidates the parliamentary Republicans: support of cultural touchstones and the need for a fight. Even as coal loses its relevance in American energy policy, supporting coal means winning over coal country voters and sticking a thumb in the eye of environmentally focused lefties.
The party continues climate change skepticism established in the last 20 years.
They view green energy with suspicion, believing it to be unreliable or unnecessary.

Foreign Policy

Following the lead of Trump, the GOP is very antagonistic against China, willing to use all sorts of tools to halt the Asian country's rise.
Similarly, traditional allies and multinational organizations are viewed with far more skepticism than the party held them in just a decade prior. NATO, the EU, and the UN are all considered to be unnecessarily entanglements which have 'taken advantage' of American might and generosity.
In a pivot from the Bush era, this version of the party is surprisingly anti-interventionist and anti-war. However they are not afraid of using aggressive language towards foreign actors they find threatening (particularly Iran, North Korea, and China).
Immigration remains a major topic for the party, particularly in relation to immigration from Latin America. Completion of the "border wall" between Mexico and the US is viewed as a legacy item keeping Trump voters engaged with the party.

The important players

Donald Trump remains the most important figure in the party. His endorsement from the "Southern White House" can mean the difference between winning and losing and his presence in the party is felt at all levels. Accordingly, his immediate orbit and family remain import to the party as well. Daughter Ivanka and daughter-in-law Laura Trump both appear primed for important Senate runs in Florida and South Carolina respectively although Don Jr. and his girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle seem poised to flirt with a more extreme right splitter party than to remain in the GOP.

Congressional leadership remains important for the party. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell (KY) remains leader of the caucus while in the House, Kevin McCarthy (CA) takes the de facto reigns as the parliamentary leader of the party. How long he can hold that position remains to be seen and his job leading the opposition will go a long ways towards deciding his fate. Steve Scalise (LA) retains his role as the second in line to McCarthy's leadership but the party loses Liz Cheney (WY) to the newly formed Conservative Party.

A host of important Republican senators remain in the party including Rick Scott (FL), Marco Rubio (FL), Chuck Grassley (IA), Lindsey Graham (SC), John Cornyn (TX), and Tom Cotton (AK). While in the House notable members include Devin Nunes (CA), Byron Donalds (FL), Greg Pence (IN), Lee Zeldin (NY), Elise Stefanik (NY), Democratic convert Jeff Van Drew (NY), Kevin Brady (TX), and Mike Gallagher (WI).

Developments to the Coalition

The Republican Party has to deal with a complex set of splitter groups following the parliamentary realignment. Similar to Democrats, they lose some members to the moderate Centrist party although their more significant losses come from how the party managed Trumpism following his 2020 electoral defeat. Those Republicans who viewed the 2020 election as being legitimate found themselves without a home in the Republican party and as such leave to form a right-wing, but in their eyes rational, party: the Conservative Party. Further to the right are those who felt the party didn't do enough to protect the former president. These members leave to form a party were they feel they are more directly attached to Trump and Trumpism: the America First Party.

These oppositional desertions place the Republican Party in the more difficult place of attempting to keep Trump voters in their coalition without losing traditional conservative Republicans. The GOP makes a bet that Trumpism is more a defining factor for their voters than actual conservatism is and move towards maintaining their relationship to the former president's style of politics. This gambit means they hope that the Conservatives will run into a wall when they are actually forced to attract votes in the next election.

Meanwhile, the creation of the America First party requires the GOP to walk a line between Trump style politics and rhetoric without veering too far towards extremism. The party, for now, view AF as a far more worrisome opponent than the staid and stuffy Conservatives.

Elsewhere in the party, Ted Cruz uses his personal brand to nearly force a new party but instead settles on a compromise, raising a smaller group inside of the Republican caucus in hopes to continue his march towards power. Cruz's Texans for Liberty Group attracts six Representatives to his cause. Thomas Massie (KY) in the House becomes the sole abdication to the already established Libertarian Party where he instantly becomes the acting leader of the party as it's only elected representative.

Rand Paul, ever the maverick egotist, takes the opportunity to leave and form his own party. The Rand Paul List fails to attract any members from the House but Paul plans to use his cult of personality to build a network of support for his radical small government vision and elect members in coming elections.

Altogether, the Republican party loses 90 House seats and 19 Senators to competing parties. If the party's strategy to continue down the tracks of the Trump train can play out to their advantage remain to be seen. What is for certain is that the party retains the largest share of the right-wing seats and is primed to play opposition (a favorite position of theirs) in the coming parliament.

Coming Up

Next week I'll be moving into the new parties created in the parliamentary realignment beginning with the new home for anti-Trump Republicans: the Conservative Party.

Disgusted by their former party's turn to Trumpism and a sense of ideological abandonment, the Conservative Party plans to forge a path for true Conservatives. Returning to the values of the Reagan Era, the Conservatives look to pitch themselves as the 'adults in the right-wing bloc.' Can they manage to keep their positioning? Who in the right-wing bloc would this party find common cause with? Are their enough anti-Trump conservative voters left to make this a viable party in the future?