"Winning" and the guiding forces behind political party decision-making.
In a Fox News Sunday interview with Chris Wallace over the weekend, Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) fought back against members of his own party who had voted guilty in the impeachment trial of former President Trump. Graham argued that Donald Trump “...is the most vibrant member of the Republican Party…” and that he is “...the most potent force in the Republican Party…” Graham conceded that he has been asked by fellow party members to ‘calm down’ the former president, but argued that the relationship has to go both ways. “I’m into winning. And if you want to get something off your chest, fine. But I’m into winning.”
Graham’s defense of the twice impeached former president is par-for-the-course for the South Carolinian Senator. He is notable for being perhaps the best embodiment of how the Trump movement captured the Republican Party. As Trump captured the Republican nomination and then the White House in 2016, Graham was among the most vocal critics of the former reality TV star. Senator Graham warned that “If it’s Donald Trump carrying the conservative banner I think not only do we lose the election, but we’ll be unable in the future to grow the conservative cause.” In a more dire statement, he offered that the nomination of Trump was “...a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.” But, as it happened, Trump won the election and became 45th President of the United States and in doing so, came to embody the Republican party in both heart and soul.
Senator Graham adapted slowly, criticizing early Trump White House decisions such as the ‘Muslim ban’ while praising other decisions like declaring the Jerusalem the capital of Israel. But as Trump’s term in office progressed Graham went from tentative critic to full-throated endorser. A turning point in Graham’s sycophancy may have been in the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh’s nomination seemed in doubt when Christine Blasey Ford accused him of sexual assault from when they had both been teenagers. Ford was called to a hearing before the Senate Judiciary committee and Kavanaugh was called to defend himself. Graham, who sat on the council, made clear his feelings on the matter, stating that democrats wanted to “destroy this guy’s life” and that the whole thing was “the most unethical sham since I’ve been in politics.” This was in late 2018, by the next year Graham's anger with the Democratic Party would spur him to become a full blown Trump apologist.
The first impeachment of president Trump in late 2019 revolved around his attempt to get the newly elected President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to start an investigation into then presidential nominee Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden, who had served on the board of a Ukrainian gas company. The move was clearly unethical and inappropriate if not illegal. However, Graham was fully on-board the Trump train by this point, alleging that the investigation into the call was a “political setup” and further pushed the unfounded idea that investigations were needed into Biden and his family. Graham's spite at the Democratic party led him to not only excuse Trump's wonton political behavior, but enthusiastically support it.
This brings us back to Graham’s comments on Sunday: president Trump is a winner and Republicans are better off hitching their wagons to him than leading their own expedition. This is the definition of absurdity in democratic politics. The former president is, in fact, perhaps the biggest electoral loser in modern American political history. He won his first election via the electoral college even as he lost the election by 3 million votes of actual Americans, his party lost the House of Representatives in a historic landslide in the 2018 midterms, and he failed to win re-election while simultaneously losing the US Senate. No president has overseen such momentous losses since Herbert Hoover in the early stages of the Great Depression, and even Hoover won the popular vote in his first election. Any normal party would run away from such spoiled political goods as fast as they possibly could. Which is what makes the cult of personality in the Republican Party around president Trump so strange. Why is it that the party is willing to chart a course around the whims of a historic political loser?
One common explanation has been the power of Trump’s literal bully pulpit. On his ascent and arrival at the top of the party, Trump brandished his ire on twitter, castigating political opponents and would-be allies alike if it so suited him. Many Republican politicians purposely held their tongue during his presidency for fear of receiving one of his dreaded early morning tweet-storms. But the former president no longer has the ability to instantly admonish those who step in his way, his twitter account permanently suspended, he won’t be returning to his favored medium. And, while he may eventually return to twitter competitor Facebook, his ability to instantly shape the political news landscape is greatly diminished. Particularly as news outlets have learned their lesson in how their early coverage of his presidential campaign may have helped catapult him into the White House.
Perhaps the obvious reason lies in the voters themselves. While there may not be enough of them to actually elect Trump to the White House, there certainly are enough Trump loving voters to re-elect Republican politicians at all other levels of government. The story of the party captured by an electoral loser has a lot to do with individual politicians and their complete weakness in the face of Trumpism. Republican politicians early in the Trump cycle avoided stepping on his bad side because they didn’t want to face the repercussions of his verbal and textual barbs, Republican politicians now at the end of his cycle don’t want to step on his bad side because the Republican electorate has been fully transformed in his image.
Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves for their perilous position. Had the party made a more concerted effort in 2015 and early 2016 to ensure that Trump could not win the primary with a small plurality of the votes, they could have staved off the predicament entirely. If Republicans could have rallied around conservative independent candidate Evan McMullen or held their nose and voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 they could have regrouped and tried again in 2020, particularly as it seemed likely they would hold the House, the Senate or both. If Republicans had made clear that they would not support Trump’s behavior when he became president, if they would have held him accountable for his corrupting actions, if they would have stood firm on conservative principles, if they would have joined together to fight against the Trumpian insurgency in their own ranks, maybe then they wouldn’t be standing where they are now: groveling at the feet of a loser because that loser has convinced their voters that he’s the winningest winner that has ever existed.
Which leads to the most significant element of the Trump cult of personality: reality is what one man makes of it. It may have been easier for Republicans to get out from underneath the Trump movement if they hadn’t been so timorous at Trump’s lies and falsehoods. Particularly “the big lie” of election fraud in the 2020 election. Trump cast his loss as actually a triumphal win stolen from him by widespread and rampant fraud on the part of Democrats. Republicans in the House and Senate either quietly went along with the process or bought in and fought on the side of the big lie. This led to the storming of the US capitol by Trump supporters on Jan. 6th. Republicans throughout had the opportunity to discredit, ignore, and move forward in reality but instead many fanned the flames in the hope that maybe they could delay the results of the election and weaken the incoming Biden administration. This cowardice led to the death of a Capitol police officer, injuries to hundreds more, and the further decay in voter confidence in American institutions.
The big lie helps to insulate Republicans from the reality that Donald Trump was a historically bad politician. His electoral victories were deeply underwhelming and showed the flaws of the Republican primary system and the electoral college. But instead of addressing the flaws exposed by an abnormal candidate, Republicans are embracing his path as the new best form of winning power. But maybe it’s the perception that matters more than the actual outcomes. Voters who embraced Trump loved that he was a ‘fighter.’ He never backs down, never pulls a punch, takes no prisoners, and never ever ever apologizes. The fact that that sort of politician was able to build such a devoted (if minoritarian) base, is troubling. The fact that the Republican Party seems to have learned the lesson that you fight like hell and never give an inch bodes poorly for American democracy.
The majority of the Republican party seems ready to fall in line and protect their fallen leader. He has been dubbed the most important figure in the Republican party, and a visit to his palatial home in Florida is the Republican version of taking the Hajj in Islam. However, Republicans are digging themselves a hole, particularly should Trump decide to run again in 2024. Firstly, he’ll successfully block all wannabe Trumpist Republicans from their opportunity to make a run at the office. Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley will be forced to stow their presidential ambitions or redefine themselves away from the Trumpist wing. Secondly, Republican strategists will have to recon with the real results of Trump through two elections and what it may mean for their chance to take back the levers of power. Finally, who knows how long the Trump base will remain activated without their man on the National stage. While the party may be gripped by Trump fever now, the reality remains that he holds no real position of power and is cut off from his most effective forms of political communication.
If Republicans like Lindsey Graham really are into winning it may be time to consider cutting their losses and leaving Trump the man behind. That doesn’t mean they can’t learn from his successes, as sordid as I view them, but it does mean that the toxicity around the actual person that is Donald Trump should be abandoned. Who knows, perhaps the party will slowly dance away from Trump the person adopting a form of Trumpism without its namesake as his presidency drifts further into the rearview mirror. Or they double down and support another attempt at the presidency from the only man ever impeached twice. Either way, if Republicans like winning, Trump the man has shown remarkably little proclivity to that end.
